CIO Outlook
Building Resilience in a Turbulent Geopolitical and Economic Landscape – As uncertainty reigns, investors must balance caution with opportunity.
Research, insights, and thought leadership from the GVS community.
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Building Resilience in a Turbulent Geopolitical and Economic Landscape – As uncertainty reigns, investors must balance caution with opportunity.
Looking at the investment cycle through the lens of derivatives paints a rather fascinating picture. Following different risk parameters across asset classes and regions, we state that markets have almost reached the stage of maximum complacency.
Despite a few setbacks on the inflation front, the US economy continues to march along a path of benign conditions for risk assets and investment styles that typically flourish in low-vol, risk-on environments. However, navigating these seemingly favorable conditions requires a nuanced understanding of both the macroeconomic landscape and potential tail risks.
In the alternative investment industry, few strategies capture the breadth and complexity of global markets quite like global macro investing. At its core, global macro is not merely a single investment approach but a comprehensive strategy that seeks to capitalize on broad economic trends and geopolitical developments across the globe. With a focus on understanding and predicting macroeconomic variables such as interest rates, fluctuations in currencies, commodities, credit and equities, along with geopolitical events, global macro managers aim to generate returns by strategically positioning their portfolios to profit from both anticipated and unforeseen shifts in the global landscape.
In this paper we explore whether it is time to move on from the “Crisis Alpha” label for trend-following strategies, and instead think of them in terms of “Unpredictability Alpha.”