Research, insights, and thought leadership from the GVS community.
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We expect markets to enter a new phase. So far in 2025, policy shocks, geopolitical risk, and high narrative volatility have been the dominant market drivers. If meaningful progress on trade deals is struck over the summer, we anticipate a transition to a regime where economic data, rather than headlines, regains primacy. Market volatility has declined since April, driven by gradually but consistently receding uncertainty.
The path ahead is unclear – shaped by fiscal, monetary, political, and geopolitical challenges. But the future is always unpredictable. When change is the only constant, history shows that adaptability, agility, and resiliency are the qualities that help strategies navigate uncertainty best. Trend following is one such strategy, deeply rooted in history and distinguished by these very attributes.
All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author(s) and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
Shifts in central bank policies often mark new market phases, though predicting these inflection points is notoriously challenging. As economic priorities evolve, central banks must carefully balance growth, labor markets, and inflation‑easing rates enough to support growth without reigniting inflation. Amid these transitions, macro hedge funds play a unique role in diversifying risk within investment portfolios, particularly during periods of economic uncertainty.
The recent upturn in Japanese stock markets has drawn attention from domestic and overseas investors to Single Stock Options (SSO) . Originally listed in 1997 on both the Osaka Exchange (OSE) and the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE), SSO became part of OSE products after the 2014 merger to JPX. Together with Nikkei 225 and TOPIX derivatives, SSO has become one of the most significant equity derivatives in Japan.
It’s complicated: Return of the ‘R’ word derailing the Goldilocks trade. The good, the bad, and the not so ugly…